Or just posturing?
The Turkish military announced, and the PM in Ankara confirmed, that the Turkish Army had moved some of its ground forces into northern Iraq to attack some bases of the Kurdish terrorist group, the PKK.
The Turks have bombarded part of the mountainous region (part of autonomous Kurdistan in Iraq) for a while now, but sending troops in while there's still a lot of heavy snow sounds, well, suspicious.
If you're just raiding or flexing your muscle, you don't want to have the weather reduce your troops' effectiveness.
But if you're invading, it's perfect timing - the adversary would not expect it.
The United States says that it's watching, but isn't doing anything to help either the Turks (apart from intelligence and satellite images) or the PKK (apart from allowing the Kurdish government to harbor a terrorist organization).
Now, what happens if the Turks throw the bulk of their forces in the area (estimated at about 150,000, with armor) into that part of Iraq?
Will the Kurds demand they leave, and what will they do if the Ankara government tells them to get knotted?
What will the US do? And what will our NATO ally tell us if we order them to back off?
It's already shaping up to be a very interesting year.